Report Estimates Global Market for Commercial HVAC Equipment Will Grow to Nearly $327 Billion by 2033

Market drivers include pent-up replacement demand, corporate sustainability commitments and government incentives

Despite being fairly saturated, the global market for commercial HVAC equipment is expected to grow over the next decade. According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, commercial HVAC revenue is expected to grow from $229.2 billion in 2024 to $326.6 billion in 2033, at an annual growth rate of 4%.

“The commercial HVAC market is highly competitive among supply-side stakeholders, including manufacturers, distributors, sales representatives, contractors, and engineering firms,” says Hannah Bastian, research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “M&A activity has been robust in the last few years and does not show signs of slowing down in the near term, suggesting the market is likely to continue growing and changing over the next decade.”

 

Drivers for demand

Several market drivers are creating demand for HVAC equipment that can reduce energy consumption and, increasingly, decarbonize heating systems and eliminate onsite fossil fuel use. Cooling equipment is also becoming more common in both existing and new buildings around the world, driving revenue growth in the commercial HVAC market.

In addition, several barriers may limit and slow growth. Macroeconomic conditions like inflation, workforce shortages, and high interest rates have made it challenging for building owners to pursue equipment upgrades. Supply-side bottlenecks like inflated material costs and manufacturing capacity have limited manufacturers’ ability to keep up with demand, and this situation is likely to continue in the near future, according to the report. 

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